Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/20-22, likely voters):
Bobby Bright (D): 45
Jay Love (R): 47
(MoE: ±5%)
Yesterday we highlighted a DCCC poll that had Bright up 50-43, which was encouraging to see after we’ve been seeing Bright losing steam on both the polling (his own internal had him up by only 1) and fundraising fronts.
Today, however, in their first poll of this race, Research 2000 shows a small edge for Jay Love, 47-45. Encouragingly, the sample give shows Bright picking up 14% of Republicans as well as 89% of Democrats, while Love picks up only 7% of Democrats and only 74% of Republicans. Unfortunately, the sample contains a lot more Republicans than Democrats (48% to 31%), which is also reflected in its presidential numbers (McCain leads in AL-02 by 56-39, although that’s still a big improvement from this district’s 67-33 performance in 2004).
UPDATE (James L.): Well, here’s one thing we missed about this poll, which is a huge red flag — the sample is only 17% African-American. This district is 30% black according to the most recent figures, and even Anzalone-Liszt pegs the black vote at a “conservative” (their words) 25%. If you adjust the sample accordingly, Bright would be leading.
Seems to me that the Research 2000 Daily Kos polld consistently are more gloomyn than other polls for the House races. Looks like a tie or a small Brught lead to me.
The sample is 17% African-American. In comparison, the district is about 30% such as a whole.
If the poll is accurate otherwise, then Bright wins easily. Rebalancing it for a 70/30 racial split, then Bright is ahead 50-40.
Bonus #: Obama is only behind 46-48! Winning 28% of the white vote is phenomenal for a Democratic presidential candidate in AL, and those numbers bode well for a possible upset in MS (where he only needs ~20% of the white vote to win.)
Their racial breakdown has blacks accounting for 17%. In reality, AAs make up 29% of the total pop.
for Obama. This will be enough to tip the race to Bright.
Yup, theyve severely undersampled AA voters, especially when we should see a surge.
I know that it really doesn’t give us a perfect picture of AL-02, but I’d rather have pessimistic information then delusional expectations of what’s happening around the country. I view the SSP Race Ratings as taking this philosophy to heart. Even compared to the NRCC “death list”, SSP is way more realistic towards toss-ups and leaners. At least that’s how I see it.
I also wonder if R2K is compensating for their affiliation with the Great Orange Satan. I’m not sure how that works, but it may just be an botched effort on their part to be objective.
And heck, polls like this give us an excuse to be pleasantly surprised on election night and get even more drunk. That alone is good enough for me.
And before anyone howls that this result somehow proves that Schulman is DOOOOOOMED, I’d like to point out that the DCCC came in to help Perriello after he released an internal poll showing him down 48-40. Schulman’s and Taddeo’s races are now comparable to Perriello’s and not only because they are all netroots favorites.
this poll basically shows Bright is about where his internal says if anything.
It’s too bad the DCCC isn’t investing in AL-03. Segall’s got a great chance and he really is a great hope for being a southern Democrat force in 10-20 years. Is there anyone that we could contact to get the DCCC to step up their game on AL-03? Some people don’t even have running water down there, $10,000 from the DCCC would really help Josh in the final ten day push!
it’s like they are three days behind where they should be. i mean shit i was getting messages about Tinklenberg on Monday and Tuesday and about what Hayes said on Thursday.
it ain’t that fucking complicated to send an email out as soon as something big like that breaks.
then instead of being in a position to move on to a Segall when Rogers makes some boneheaded commments they are too busy trying to take some race in Indiana where the candidate didn’t raise more than what 100k.
i won’t give another red cent to the DCCC directly again.
I feel very good about this contest. Overall, Love’s favorables are 48/36 (+12), and Brights are 46/35 (+11) — nearly identical. But check their approval numbers among independent voters:
Love: 44/38 (+6)
Bright: 47/33 (+14)
Indies are much more skewed towards Bright.
One number stands out at me as similiar to WY-AL. Whereas Dems are 4% undecided, and indies 5%, 12% of GOPers are undecided. I think there is a healthy slice of conservatives who like Bright but are not completely ready to vote for a Democrat. This is the same problem Gary Trauner faces, though in WY-AL the percentage is higher, and that district is even more Republican.